The Perils of Punditry

Thinking about recent posts on the Republican party's problems prompted this mildly disconcerting thought:

So, isn't it just a little too convenient that the Republican party might be able to solve some of its problems if only it were inclined to view matters in much the same way you do? That is if it were, shall we say, more "relaxed" about gay marriage and more open to some kind of comprehensive immigration settlement? That's an audacious claim, ain't it? The problem with the party is that it panders to all these other people rather than to people like you. What gives you - a foreigner to boot - the right to be quite so presumptious?

It's a fair question, guv. No doubt about that. And one that I'd suggest all commentators (on any political subject) ought to ask themselves from time to time. Clearly, there's no guarantee that a more centrist, sensitive, nuanced conservatism would prevail even though I do think the GOP needs to rethink its approach as well as some of its policies.

However, you can also make a case for arguing that the GOP has not, despite being in the ascendancy, been quite as successful as is often imagined. True the party has held the White House for 20 of the past 28 years, but it's also the case that since 1988 the Republican nominee has only once (and even then narrowly) prevailed in the popular vote. 

Perhaps, you might say, that's cherry-picking a stat and you might well be correct. Nonetheless, the only GOP victory (in the popular vote) in the last 20 years came in a) a quasi-khaki election and against b) a hapless doofus of a Democratic candidate. Beating John Kerry doesn't prove much. The United States may well be a centre-right nation in relation to other countries, but recently it hasn't been voting as a centre-right nation in American terms. And of course for most of the past half century, the Democrats have also controlled the House of Representatives. Sure, Bush scored a draw with Gore in 2000, but he did so by outperforming expectations and, absent Lewinsky and Gore's own foolishness*, would surely have been defeated.

Just as the purest liberalism is a minority taste, so too is whiter than white conservatism. And at the moment the longer-term demographic trends offer scant encouragement to a party that is increasingly perceived, not altogether inaccurately, as being white, male, elderly and religious. Of course, you need to look after your base but you also need to realise that the base is not enough. Unless it can improve its performance amongst "minority" voters then the GOP will need to do better and better amongst white voters even as those voters constitute an ever shrinking percentage of the electorate. In the long run that seems an unsustainable position. Yes, there may be some victories along the way but, as matters stand (they could change!), they're unlikely to be much more than exceptions to a general trend...

Obviously the GOP doesn't need to build a policy platform just to please me (that might also be electoral suicide!) but, again as matters stand, it's running against the grain not with it. That's a tough and dangerous spot for any political party.

*Another peril of punditry: assuming that the vanquished party was, and was always going to be, useless. Still, the list of defeated Democrats in recent years (Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry) is hardly impressive. In fact, the defeated Republicans (Bush Sr, Dole, McCain) is, I'd hazard, more impressive than the list of losing Democrats. This might suggest that Democrats can't win when they choose a poor candidate but that even a decent, more or less aceeptable Republican can't be guaranteed victory. Or it might suggest something else. Or nothing!

Comments

[ndm]

In writing

Still, the list of defeated Democrats in recent years (Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry) is hardly impressive. In fact, the defeated Republicans (Bush Sr, Dole, McCain) is, I'd hazard, more impressive than the list of losing Democrats.

Alex Massie forgets Jonathan Rauch's seemingly iron-fisted rule for selecting the US President.

With only one exception since the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt, no one has been elected president who took more than 14 years to climb from his first major elective office to election as either president or vice president.

George W. Bush took six years. Bill Clinton, 14. George H.W. Bush, 14 (to the vice presidency). Ronald Reagan, 14. Jimmy Carter, six. Richard Nixon, six (to vice president). John Kennedy, 14. Dwight Eisenhower, zero. Harry Truman, 10 (to vice president). Franklin Roosevelt, four. Herbert Hoover, zero. Calvin Coolidge, four. Warren Harding, six. Woodrow Wilson, two. William Howard Taft, zero. Theodore Roosevelt, two (to vice president). The one exception: Lyndon Johnson's 23 years from his first House victory to the vice presidency.

[Mark Thompson]

I think what the conservative movement ultimately needs to do is simply recognize that it consists of a number of different variations of conservatism and that there is no one master conservatism. If the GOP is to re-emerge as a "conservative" party, it will need to do so in a way that accommodates all the various forms of conservatism and libertarianism. If they can do so, they will be able to present themselves in a more coherent fashion that is based on issues that the various forms of conservatism truly share in common. Unfortunately, I don't know what those issues really are right now - the only one that immediately comes to mind is earmark reform, but that is hardly an issue that is going stir up the passions of the electorate. It may be that the GOP coalition will have to shrink some more and permanently cast aside one or more of its constituent philosophies in order to again build around something that those philosophies share in common.
I guess the way to think of it is that the GOP needs to find a way to brand itself as a party that includes religious conservatives rather than as the party OF religious conservatives; and a party that includes libertarians rather than as the party OF libertarianism.....and so forth.

[JimB]

Here's a plausible (and thoroughly unpleasant) scenario for a Republican revival that doesn't take your advice: Sarah Palin figures out how to appeal to Hispanics (OK, it probably wouldn't be her, but you get the idea.) The resulting party is isolationist and aggressively populist: anti-bank, anti-intellectual, anti-wall street, anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, anti-latte-sipping-bicoastal-snob. With demographics on its side, this party could whip the snot out of the Democrats for years to come.

[ben]

Again, one wonders what the *goal* is. Is there something about the name "Republican" or any set of ideas calling themselves "conservative" that are worthy of merit just because those names and labels are involved?

There are close to zero policies of the current Republican party platform and the current soi-disant conservative movement which are appealing. This is a pro-deficit, pro-war, anti-choice, anti-freedom, theocratic, pro-stupidity movement that loudly and aggressively trumpets all of these qualities. Why would anyone who favors freedom, fiscal rectitude, and reason want the Republican party to succeed? Why would anyone want to call himself a conservative when conservatism has come to mean forced Jesus lessons, wiretapping, torture, runaway government spending, and invading everyone?

[cheap computers]

Reseller of grade 'A' Cheap Used/Refurbished Computers, Used Refurbished Computers, Cheap Refurbished Computers at Discounted Prices. Dealers in Cheap Used HP and Dell Computer Systems. Visit us online at http://www.pctechoutlet.com for weekly special deals.

[E cig]

Thanks for the post!

[used computers]

I do think the GOP needs to rethink its approach as well as some of its policies.

[Web Hosting]

It’s really great post. I would like to appreciate your work and would like to tell to my friends.

[ugg bailey button]

Some people pretend to despise the things they cannot have.So belive yourself.

[sdfase]

I will bookmark your blog and have my friends check up here often. I am quite sure they will learn lots of new stuff here than anybody else. Thanks for sharing this information.
http://www.uggmalls.com

[Supra Vaider]

[ this is good]

[pandora bolas]

Debido a la cierta sensación de satisfacción personal pandora abalorios que siente la gente el uso de joyas que coincidan con su personalidad, pandora bolas joyería de la manera ha sobrevivido hasta esta edad. pandora anillo Y aunque se habían ido los días cuando la gente caminaba por hacer alarde pandora spain de lo anterior estilo mencionado de joyas de moda, herramientas modernas y de fácil fabricación de joyas consejos se han asegurado joyas de pandora de que el hombre moderno - o más apropiadamente, abalorios pandora catalogo las mujeres, disfrutaron de la misma satisfacción de llevar joyas en cristales, pandora nuevos oro, diamantes, perlas y otras piedras preciosas.

[wholesale electronics]

Nice website! I enjoy a couple of of the articles which were written, and especially the comments posted! I will definately be visiting again!

[Pandora Bracelets]

Pandora may perhaps be within antithetical clues, flowers plus animal imprints, representations, zodiac indicators, colors as well as substances that give you unlimited selections together with combination.Relating to Pandora Jewellery , the beads shift freely additionally rotate slightly with your wrists motion, creating the undeniable observation catching in combination with stunning influence.Pandora Bracelets has granted women globally the to be able to wear their personal report to lifes wonderful moments, thereby become component of their amazing story about romantic besides fun moments forever. Because Pandora style may very well be so private and distinctive, it can be a trend among women all over the world. Pandora bracelet fans emerge from worldwide and variety Pandora Necklace holics clubs or associations for exhibit their want to the irresistible gifts when using the gods.

[coach outlet]

Your point of view a lot of benefit to me, thank you

[Jack wills]

Nice one, there is actually some good points on this blog some of my readers may find this useful, I must send a link, many thanks!!.

[hollister uk]

There is noticeably a bundle to learn about this. I assume you made sure nice points in features also!!!.

[Jack wills]

I think am just having some problems with subscribing to RSS feed here.!

[Mini Laptop]

True! You put very collective and amazing article about Republican party's problems. I want to bookmark your site. Thanks dude!

[hollister clothing]

The game's a lot less fun when you're not playing too. Equally clearly this move wouldn't be happening without the support and encouragement of those of you who read this blog and those of you who have been kind enough to link here. So for that, many thanks.

[New Songs]

Finally, an issue that I am passionate about. Can you share more about Republican party's?

[birkenstock outlet]

It would be as absurd as it would be Wi ked for him to attempt to

[collectcheaps]

"It's a retreat to core Hulk values, a film of low risks and low yields, though not entirely without its own silly merits," writes Keith Phipps at the AV Club.

[Jordan 11]

Thanks injure you the human, because he has tempered your will! Thank trips your person, because he strengthened your both legs! Thanks deceive you the human, because he promoted your wisdom! Thank despises you the person, because he has awakened your self-respect! Thanks abandon you the person, because he has taught your this independence!

[Diamonds Texas]

I would like to thank you for the efforts which you have made in writing this article. I am hoping the same best work from you in the future as well. I look forward your next information will be a nice and great it will.

[android tablet]

Good post. I really enjoyed reading it. Thanks for sharing.

[ölgemälde]

ölgemälde

[California DUI Lawyer]

It was really a good experience from your blog i definitely share this information to my close friends. Keeps up the good work going.

[high replica]

Agree with it!

[nike shox deliver]

loves one another actually does not fall in love. loves a person, perhaps has the prolonged pain; But he gives my joy, is also in the world biggest joyful the love happiest time, is stage which is swayed by personal gains and losses, once loses, we only then knew, I may also, but

[refurbished computers best discounted deals]

You would think that it would be easier to predict a statistically oriented sport like baseball than politics. New York Times​ blogger Nate Silver​ has carved out a spot on the newspaper’s website as a writer of stat-driven political commentary that is liberal-leaning but always interesting.

[Canada Goose Norge]

The latest design ,unique colour design Canada Goose Jakker ,I recommend you here to order
Our website provides you with
Jacken Moncler
zo in de mode
Moncler Weste
verschillende ontwerpen
Moncler Herren
zijn erg populair tegenwoordig met de hoge
Moncler Damen
zijn erg populair verschillende ontwerpen
Moncler München
de hoogste kwaliteit
Moncler Daunenjacke
zijn erg populair verschillende ontwerpen
Canada Goose Jakkerzo in de mode tillate Canada Goose Jakker ?rstidene forandre og opprettholde et st?rre ubalanse med alvorlige kj?lig scenarier p? en annen side kan det muligens v?re den mest effektive h?ye kvaliteten p? Canada Goose Oslo merkevare,
Canada Jakkeverschillende ontwerpen Canada Goose i Oslo som har holdt seg jevn hele veien der gjennom. Canada Jakke st?vler ligger i et enest?ende omr?de med stil markedet!
Canada Goose Norgezijn erg populair tegenwoordig met de hoge kwaliteit
Canada Goose Oslozijn erg populair verschillende ontwerpen
Goose Jakke de hoogste kwaliteit Canada Goose Norge Outletshop kan ikke bli oppdaget Goose Jakke salg i en region den store majoriteten av dens vinteren og v?ren Goose Jakke er etablert fra 100% premium australske tvilling-faced saueskinn.welcome to buy!Thanks very much for sharing!
The latest design ,unique colour design Canada Goose Jacka ,I recommend you here to order
Our website provides you with
Canada Goose Jacka
zo in de mode Canada Goose Jacka Temperaturen blir l?gre och l?gre, vi alla br?ttom att k?pa varm Moncler dunjacka
Canada Goose Jackor
verschillende ontwerpen ner Goose Jacka i denna kalla ?rstiden, som har anslutit sig till trenden av element? P?lskrage ?r det mest omtyckt stil
Canada Goose Stockholm
zijn erg populair tegenwoordig met de hoge kwaliteit
Canada Goose Sverige
olika m?nster ?r mycket popul?ra Canada Goose Jackor ?r ofta ett flaggskepp varum?rke modeller av olika l?ngder, f?rger varierar
Goose Jacka
h?gsta kvalitet,f?rger varierar, midja stil med ett f?rvirrande appear.charming moncler ?ppnat ett nytt
Moncler Jas
zo in de mode,Moncler Jassen je meer in de mode, is moncler merk internationaal erkend als een symbool van hoge kwaliteit en stijl
Moncler Jassen
verschillende ontwerpen,dat is aan de top van de mode-business
Moncler merk is bekend om cutting edge onderwerp materie en ook voor hun kleurrijke stijlen.
Moncler Dames
Deze trend zet zich voort in hun lijn van motorkleding en accessoires. Trend instelling is absoluut niets nieuws voor de mensen van Ed Hardy, en na zie je hun lijn van modieuze versnelling zul je niet teleurgesteld worden.
Moncler Heren
zijn erg populair verschillende ontwerpen,en na zie je hun lijn van modieuze versnelling zul je niet teleurgesteld worden.
Moncler Amsterdam
de hoogste kwaliteit,moncler jas komt het bezit van een mooie stijlvolle stijl moncler,Trend instelling is absoluut niets nieuws voor de mensen van Ed Hardy, en na zie je hun lijn van modieuze versnelling zul je niet teleurgesteld worden.
Moncler WinterJassen
zijn erg populair verschillende ontwerpen,moncler jas De temperatuur wordt lager en lager, we haasten om op te warmen moncler kopen donsjack, een daling van moncler jas in deze koude seizoen, dat is de trend van de elementen verbonden? Bontkraag is het meest geliefd stijl.
Canada Goose Jakke
zo in de mode
Canada Goose Danmark
verschillende ontwerpen
Canada Goose Sverige
zijn erg populair tegenwoordig met de hoge
Canada Goose Trillium
zijn erg populair verschillende ontwerpen
Goose Jakke
de hoogste kwaliteit