Iraq as cause of Scottish independence? Hmmmm...

Ben Crair has a piece at TNR today headlined, The Iraq War is Responsible for Scottish Independence. Really.

Well, up to a point Lord Copper. The "Really" is an unfortunate indication that this pudding may be a little over-egged.

Few people would deny that discontent with the war played a part in the SNP's victory in this year's elections. But other factors were at least as, and probably more, important. Among them:

1. Alex Salmond's return from his Westminster exile. Salmond brings a heavyweight presence that trumped anything the SNP could put up in his absence; it trumped Jack McConnell's pretensions to statesman status too. You wouldn't feel embarrassed being represented by Salmond. Alas, the same could not be said of McConnell.

2. Unhappiness with the Labour party's performance in office, coupled with a sense that if we sent Labour back to power this time we might never be able to get them out. As always, the election was a two stage referendum: did the Labour led coalition deserve to be returned and, if not, was the SNP a sufficiently credible alternative? Just enough people answered "No" and "Yes" respectively. Some left-wing voters who abandoned the Labour party may have done so because of the war, but dissatisfaction with Labour's colourless, dreary performance in office existed across the political spectrum. Labour failed but opposition to the war was not enough to persuade folk to trust the nationalists with power.

3. The referendum promise: nothing made Labour's relentlessly negative campaign (which almost certainly turned off some voters) seem more absurd than the SNP's promise to hold a referendum on independence. By doing so the party removed the greatest obstacle to its achieving power while also, happily, underlining its belief in the essential sovereignty of the Scottish people. Implicit in this pledge was the promise "we trust you to decide our nation's future; Labour doesn't". Equally importantly, the referendum "normalises" independence as an everyday issue, giving the electorate time to come to terms and be comfortable with the prospect. It won't happen overnight- hence a desire to hold a plebiscite in 2010 not 2008 - but it will, the SNP banks, happen at some point.

The point that needs to be borne in mind is that the independence cause is a process not an event; Tony Blair's unpopularity and the Iraq war may help in a short-term tactical sense but they are largely irrelevant to the longer-term strategic objective. The cause ebbs and flows like the tide, but each time it has receded these past thirty years the tide-mark has been that little bit further up the beach than it had been the previous lunar cycle...

So, no. Iraq may have played a part, but she's not the prima donna singing this old song. If Scotland chooses a velvet divorce form the rest of the UK it will be because the electorate is persuaded that this is the common sense way forward; it will not be the result of pique or an intemperate response to an unpopular war or an unpopular prime minister.

Comments

[Panenka'sChip]

Alex - The fact that I agree with all of the above renders me somewhat speechless....

[tommyt]

It is, mind you, worth bearing in mind how absolutley mindbendingly close the election was. 25 voters in Ayrshire could well have made the difference between what we have now (something new different and with at least the potential to excite) and what we had before. Still the same argument could be made of some Florida votes in 2000 which landed us with the war which is now alleged as the cause of Labours narrow defeat.

Two subtle points which are sometimes missed, the 2003 election was fought in the only month ever when the IRaq war was popular in Scotland - Saddmas statue was pulled down a little more than a week before polling day. This meant Labour got the usual "war bounce". Secondly I do not think that Salmond would have come back if the SNP performed better in 2003 or if we (the UK)were not involved in a war which he utterly opposes. So, funnily, maybe it is all about Iraq.

The SNP has supported a referendum on independence for about a quarter of a century by the way. SO again the perceived success of that "tactic" could be down to the messenger not the message, and what a campaign it was. I still know people hooked who are taking prescription drugs as a result.

[michaelf]

In the piece in TNR by Ben Crair he writes -

'since Scotland currently receives 11 billion more pounds than it pays in taxes'.

Here is an extract from the House of Commons, Hansard Debates, 13 January 1998, Column 225 -

'...that Her Majesty's Treasury has told us that since 1979 Scotland contributed £27 billion more to the United Kingdom than we received in services. In the time since the election, no Minister has disproved those Treasury answers.'.